At the close of another season, there are many in the game who believe English football has never been in better shape. After all, we’ve had a final day finish to the Premier League for the first time in nine years, the new record-breaking lucrative TV deal kicks in next season and gates are up in all leagues bar the Championship, where they are only slightly down. There was an all-English Champions League final and English teams made up three of the semi-final quartet and, but for the luck of the draw, Arsenal should have claimed the fourth spot. It would appear English football has finally emulated, and surpassed, the Italian and Spanish leagues. OK, we’ve had to accept not qualifying for Euro 2008, but that’s all Steve McClaren’s fault, isn’t it? Now, at least with the appointment of Fabio Capello, a commitment to building the academy at long last and the setting of some actual short and long-term objectives by the FA (debatable though they are), England seem to be going in the right direction.
So why is RTG not sharing in this euphoria? Let’s leave aside, for one minute, the disappointment of watching an Englandless tournament that starts next week. What actually happened during this season 2007/2008?
Before the start, Arsenal were written off by the pundits as likely to drop out of the top four, to be replaced by Spurs. After three games or so, Manchester United were written off for the title because they drew a couple of their opening games and lost to Manchester City. Similar sentiments were expressed about Chelsea following the departure of Mourinho. Whilst RTG does not claim to be the world expert on predictions, we stuck to our guns to reiterate the point made at the end of the 2006/2007 season that the same four would occupy the top four spots yet again. In fact, despite the fact that Manchester United lost five times in the season, there were still 22 points between first place and fifth and 51 points between first and the three relegation spots. So, effectively, nobody caught up despite Sky’s Andy Gray asserting boldly that, “this season the gap is closing”. The truth of the matter is that, due to changes of ownership and pre-mortgaging future TV revenue, a few more clubs had a lot more cash to splash around.
Worryingly, the perception that, nowadays, clubs and especially newly promoted clubs, need to spend heavily to survive, has really grown. Take the case of Sunderland, who spent around £50 million to survive their first season back in the Premier League – just! Recently, even more players have come out to plead the case to their chairmen to open the purse strings. Tim Howard, the Everton goalkeeper, being the latest in an ever-growing list. This, despite David Moyes’ pessimistic, but probably realistic, statement toward the end of the season that there is a glass ceiling above fifth place.
This summer’s close season is predicted to break all records in transfer spending. Some are even predicting that Chelsea will break six figure millions for their transfer budget. To RTG, this is reminiscent of the arms build up, during the cold war, that ultimately bankrupted one of the only two countries that could compete. If, as is widely forecasted by the financial markets and government organisations, there is an economic downturn, are they still going to be able to fill grounds and reach the TV audiences that much of Premier League football is reliant upon? Most clubs have again announced inflation-busting rises in ticket prices for next season but how long will it be before supporters’ wallets are closed to pay for increased food and fuel prices? And when these economic factors kick in, how long will it be before supporters of the majority of teams in the Premier League decide that, watching a team that won't win anything, is not a priority in an ever-decreasing wage packet?
So why is RTG not sharing in this euphoria? Let’s leave aside, for one minute, the disappointment of watching an Englandless tournament that starts next week. What actually happened during this season 2007/2008?
Before the start, Arsenal were written off by the pundits as likely to drop out of the top four, to be replaced by Spurs. After three games or so, Manchester United were written off for the title because they drew a couple of their opening games and lost to Manchester City. Similar sentiments were expressed about Chelsea following the departure of Mourinho. Whilst RTG does not claim to be the world expert on predictions, we stuck to our guns to reiterate the point made at the end of the 2006/2007 season that the same four would occupy the top four spots yet again. In fact, despite the fact that Manchester United lost five times in the season, there were still 22 points between first place and fifth and 51 points between first and the three relegation spots. So, effectively, nobody caught up despite Sky’s Andy Gray asserting boldly that, “this season the gap is closing”. The truth of the matter is that, due to changes of ownership and pre-mortgaging future TV revenue, a few more clubs had a lot more cash to splash around.
Worryingly, the perception that, nowadays, clubs and especially newly promoted clubs, need to spend heavily to survive, has really grown. Take the case of Sunderland, who spent around £50 million to survive their first season back in the Premier League – just! Recently, even more players have come out to plead the case to their chairmen to open the purse strings. Tim Howard, the Everton goalkeeper, being the latest in an ever-growing list. This, despite David Moyes’ pessimistic, but probably realistic, statement toward the end of the season that there is a glass ceiling above fifth place.
This summer’s close season is predicted to break all records in transfer spending. Some are even predicting that Chelsea will break six figure millions for their transfer budget. To RTG, this is reminiscent of the arms build up, during the cold war, that ultimately bankrupted one of the only two countries that could compete. If, as is widely forecasted by the financial markets and government organisations, there is an economic downturn, are they still going to be able to fill grounds and reach the TV audiences that much of Premier League football is reliant upon? Most clubs have again announced inflation-busting rises in ticket prices for next season but how long will it be before supporters’ wallets are closed to pay for increased food and fuel prices? And when these economic factors kick in, how long will it be before supporters of the majority of teams in the Premier League decide that, watching a team that won't win anything, is not a priority in an ever-decreasing wage packet?
Let’s remind ourselves that the season’s all-English Champions League final was contested between the two most indebted clubs in the history of football. United and Chelsea have a combined total debt of approximately £1.5 billion. Chelsea’s debt would appear to be fairly safe as long as Abramovich maintains his interest. But what of Manchester United? It only takes a slight downturn and some of the fine margins they are trading under may come back to haunt them.
