All's Well, That End's Well?

At the close of another season, there are many in the game who believe English football has never been in better shape. After all, we’ve had a final day finish to the Premier League for the first time in nine years, the new record-breaking lucrative TV deal kicks in next season and gates are up in all leagues bar the Championship, where they are only slightly down. There was an all-English Champions League final and English teams made up three of the semi-final quartet and, but for the luck of the draw, Arsenal should have claimed the fourth spot. It would appear English football has finally emulated, and surpassed, the Italian and Spanish leagues. OK, we’ve had to accept not qualifying for Euro 2008, but that’s all Steve McClaren’s fault, isn’t it? Now, at least with the appointment of Fabio Capello, a commitment to building the academy at long last and the setting of some actual short and long-term objectives by the FA (debatable though they are), England seem to be going in the right direction.

So why is RTG not sharing in this euphoria? Let’s leave aside, for one minute, the disappointment of watching an Englandless tournament that starts next week. What actually happened during this season 2007/2008?

Before the start, Arsenal were written off by the pundits as likely to drop out of the top four, to be replaced by Spurs. After three games or so, Manchester United were written off for the title because they drew a couple of their opening games and lost to Manchester City. Similar sentiments were expressed about Chelsea following the departure of Mourinho. Whilst RTG does not claim to be the world expert on predictions, we stuck to our guns to reiterate the point made at the end of the 2006/2007 season that the same four would occupy the top four spots yet again. In fact, despite the fact that Manchester United lost five times in the season, there were still 22 points between first place and fifth and 51 points between first and the three relegation spots. So, effectively, nobody caught up despite Sky’s Andy Gray asserting boldly that, “this season the gap is closing”. The truth of the matter is that, due to changes of ownership and pre-mortgaging future TV revenue, a few more clubs had a lot more cash to splash around.

Worryingly, the perception that, nowadays, clubs and especially newly promoted clubs, need to spend heavily to survive, has really grown. Take the case of Sunderland, who spent around £50 million to survive their first season back in the Premier League – just! Recently, even more players have come out to plead the case to their chairmen to open the purse strings. Tim Howard, the Everton goalkeeper, being the latest in an ever-growing list. This, despite David Moyes’ pessimistic, but probably realistic, statement toward the end of the season that there is a glass ceiling above fifth place.

This summer’s close season is predicted to break all records in transfer spending. Some are even predicting that Chelsea will break six figure millions for their transfer budget. To RTG, this is reminiscent of the arms build up, during the cold war, that ultimately bankrupted one of the only two countries that could compete. If, as is widely forecasted by the financial markets and government organisations, there is an economic downturn, are they still going to be able to fill grounds and reach the TV audiences that much of Premier League football is reliant upon? Most clubs have again announced inflation-busting rises in ticket prices for next season but how long will it be before supporters’ wallets are closed to pay for increased food and fuel prices? And when these economic factors kick in, how long will it be before supporters of the majority of teams in the Premier League decide that, watching a team that won't win anything, is not a priority in an ever-decreasing wage packet?

Let’s remind ourselves that the season’s all-English Champions League final was contested between the two most indebted clubs in the history of football. United and Chelsea have a combined total debt of approximately £1.5 billion. Chelsea’s debt would appear to be fairly safe as long as Abramovich maintains his interest. But what of Manchester United? It only takes a slight downturn and some of the fine margins they are trading under may come back to haunt them.

Premier League’s Predictable Procession Marches On

On October 22nd last year RTG reviewed the opening phase of the current season, with it a quarter complete. At that time, our basic conclusion was that very little appeared to have changed: the big four were still the big four and occupying the top places, despite pre-season optimism to the contrary; the level of genuine competition was becoming as humdrum as ever; England were struggling to qualify for Euro 2008 despite the usual mindless optimism from the media; most clubs outside of the big four were struggling to fill their grounds.

Now that just over half the season is complete, has anything changed since then?

Well, the government and financial press seem to be talking us into a recession and this appears to be reflected in even more empty seats in some grounds and making the current transfer window seem even more about speculation than actual deals being completed.

Subject to Liverpool beating Aston Villa tonight, at Anfield, the big four will once again occupy the top four places in the Premier League. In fact, it seems likely that any deviation from this by the end of the season, should Everton, City or maybe Villa make it in to the Champions League, will be purely down to Liverpool’s owners mismanagement of their affairs than anything else.

The rest of the Premier League has predictably polarised with perennial strugglers, Fulham, plus the newly promoted teams, fighting out the relegation issues. In summary, there does not appear to be much for the objective football supporter to relish in competitive terms. There will be no new name on the Premiership trophy. Or, for that matter, any of the other trophies up for grabs. In fact, the only “surprise” is that Arsenal’s name may appear on the Premier League trophy for the first time in four years. Big deal! Little wonder that people seem reluctant to part with £30-£90 of their hard-earned cash each week to watch the Premier League’s predictable procession.

Revenues from the new TV deal seemed to have very little competitive impact despite this being hailed, amidst a frenzy of summer transfer activity, as potentially the most open Premier League season ever. In fact, more money actually led to more panic, with more managers being sacked….sorry leaving by ‘mutual consent’ in the first half of the season than throughout the whole of last season. Most commentators have suggested that this is as it should be and only reflects common practices in the business world. RTG would suggest that failing business leaders who walk away with multi-million pound pay-offs is not a practice that we would like to replicate in the football world. After all, it is our money that is being leaked away through incompetent management and poor recruitment.

So are there any grounds for optimism or is it all doom and gloom? Well, at least FIFA and UEFA have begun to address one of RTG’s pet issues – the club v country debate. RTG will return to that in our next posting barring any major developments elsewhere. The English FA’s Burton project, which is currently in moth balls, is being debated again, at least, and we have a new England manager who does not appear to be afraid of the media – though his first squad selection should give us an indication as to whether he has the balls to end the ridiculous David Beckham 100th cap debate. RTG’s advice to Fabio, should he wish to listen, is give him a picture of a Spitfire or his gold watch and send him on his way with a handshake. England has bigger mountains to climb.

Reclaim the Game – The Weekend’s Events

• Amidst the acres of press coverage given to the ‘Messiah’s return’ this week, Kevin Keegan put paid to any idea that he does not have his finger on the pulse of the modern game by stating that the big four are ruining the FA Cup by fielding weakened teams. Errrr…..Kevin….even League 2 Peterborough fielded a weakened team in the FA Cup this year! Get with the programme Kevin…sorry matchday magazine!
• Sir Alex Ferguson denies making obscene gestures at the Reading fans citing relief at scoring the second goal as the reason for his slightly bizarre hand/arm actions. The truth is likely to be that the grey haired season ticketholder who sits behind the bench at the Mad Stad does look a little like Arsene Wenger.
• RTG wonders how, as Manchester United fly off this week for a million pound “earner” to Saudi Arabia, travel visas will be obtained for the Glazer family – their failing to qualify on account of their Jewish faith. Or is it just another case of money over-riding everything, including racism and propping up inequitable regimes.

Hats Off, Take A Bow (or not)!

Player of the Week - Benjani Mwaruwari, as much for his season’s performances as for his hat trick against struggling Derby County.

Villains of the Week – chiefly the journalist panel on Sky’s Sunday Supplement, but also the bandwagon jumpers who feel that David Beckham’s 100th cap is more important than re building a new England team. And no! He doesn’t deserve it.

Hero of the Week – Neil Warnock. When he took over at Crystal Palace, they were second from bottom. Having beaten second placed Bristol City at the weekend, they are now handily placed in 5th.

Shock of the Week – Havant and Waterlooville’s FA Cup 3rd round victory over the best team in League 1, Swansea City. Oh the romance of the FA…..

Cliché of the Week – “Return of the Messiah”. No he’s not, he’s a very naughty boy!

Christmas Cheers and New Year Woes?

As Christmas beckons RTG takes a look back on 2007 with our reasons for Christmas cheer (hurray!) and potential for New Year woes (boooo!). Rest assured, RTG will be back in the New Year, on 3rd January 2008, to continue our campaign to keep the woes at bay. Don’t forget to join us. For those of you who read this, have a great Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Hurray! The FA finally seem to have realised that the game needs a ‘root and branch’ review – all be it 30 years too late!
Boooo! Given the FA’s history and its incomprehensible administrative structure will it actually highlight the key issues? After all, it is very difficult to make constructive criticism and recommendations about the very organisation that is commissioning the review.

Hurray! Steve McClaren was finally put out of his (and our) inevitable misery and Fabio Capello was installed as the new England manager.
Boooo! It took us failing to qualify for Euro 2008 for the FA to finally realise what many supporters knew – he was the wrong man for the job from the start.

Hurray! The new Wembley finally opened its doors for business several years late and the first FA Cup final for six years was played there.
Boooo! It cost far too much to build, has diverted resources and objectives away from the development of the England team and still doesn’t offer genuine supporters any more opportunity getting hold of tickets for big matches.

Hurray! Graham Poll retired.
Boooo! Uriah Rennie didn’t.

Hurray! The first trial of goal line technology has begun in one of the lower leagues.
Boooo! Technology seems to have crept in undercover and untested anyway as some referees now appear to refer to the fourth official watching Sky before making important decisions.

Hurray! Premiership teams are now taking the Carling Cup more seriously.
Boooo! Looks like that it too, is now becoming the preserve of the Big Four also.

Hurray! The total domination of the Premiership by Chelsea over the previous two seasons was broken by Manchester United.
Boooo! Roman Abramovich’s petty cash will no doubt put Chelsea back into their own league – just like that nice Mr Kenyon said it would. But the likelihood of anyone outside of the Big Four winning anything remains even further away.

Hurray! The Stevens Inquiry finally produced some results with the recent high profile arrests. Most surprisingly they have gone for people who still have an influence in the game rather than those too old and pissed up to defend themselves.
Boooo! City of London Police is in charge of the investigation. Judging by the way they handled the Kieron Fallon and other fraud trials, don’t expect much of a result!

Hurray! The cynical manipulation by Leeds Chairman, Ken Bates, of the administration punishment (ie 10 point reduction applied when Leeds were already relegated) did not go unpunished as Leeds were deducted a further 15 points at the start of the current season.
Boooo! Wrexham did the same, apparently, but no sanctions were imposed for reasons unknown to RTG. Additionally worrying, there are still a number of clubs still on the verge of administration even in the richest football country in the world.

Hurray! Supporters were treated to more live games on TV than ever before.
Boooo! The ridiculous choice, timings and division of money sought to ensure that we, the supporters, were consequently fleeced once again.

Hurray! Posh and Becks flew out to LA with RTG's anticipation that their unhealthy influence on English football was finally over.
Boooo! They seem to be on our TVs, and in our press, more than bloody ever! The most anticipated media event following Capello’s appointment does not seem to be the prospect of the rebuilding of a flagging England side but more about whether Beckham gets his 100th cap or not. God help us! For the record also, Channel Five and ESPN, we are not the least bit bloody interested in Major League Soccer!